Publications
1. Natasha Goel and Eric Merkley. 2024. “The Nature of Online Talk: Incivility of Opposing Views and Affective Polarization.” Political Behavior.
Abstract: Affective polarization is on the rise. Increasing polarization is often attributed to the nature of political discussion on social media platforms, but little is known about the affective consequences of the incivility of online discussion. This study adopts a trust game to consider whether people punish the incivility of both out-partisans and co-partisans and whether there are gender-related differences in punishment. It also examines whether incivility can have spillover effects on broader out-party hostility. Five pre-registered hypotheses are tested using a pair of survey experiments fielded to a sample (N = 974) of adult Canadian partisans. We find that participants punish the incivility of co-partisans but not out-partisans. However, incivility may spill over and heighten hostility towards out-parties more generally. Finally, we do not find evidence that women are more likely to be punished for incivility. Our findings highlight significant nuance with respect to the effects of incivility on trust and affective polarization, as well as the expectations of civility people hold for individuals online.
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2. Natasha Goel. 2023. "Residential Segregation and Inequality: Considering Barriers to Choice in Toronto." The Canadian Geographer/Le Géographe canadien 67(3): 380-393.
Abstract: Segregation of visible minorities has persisted throughout time in Toronto. In examining these concentrations, the literature has been heavily focused on the notion that visible minorities are choosing to live in proximity to their respective ethno-racial groups and that these are spaces of aspiration rather than marginalization in Canada. This paper raises questions about the assertion of “self-segregation” by emphasizing affordability constraints on residential choices that are often rooted in discrimination in the labour market. Census data from 2016 and an adopted neighbourhood classification scheme were used to understand the spatial patterning of visible minorities in the Toronto census metropolitan area and highlight differences in the socio-economic characteristics of visible minority dominant and white dominant census tracts. The findings invite the inference that economic opportunities play a critical role in the residential choices of visible minorities and raise concerns about the quality of life in visible minority neighbourhoods. This research contributes to our understanding of how social inequalities have impacted the socio-spatial organization of the city of Toronto.
Working papers
1. Natasha Goel, Thomas Bergeron, Blake Lee-Whiting, Thomas Galipeau, Danielle Bohonos, Mujahedul Islam, Sarah Lachance, Sonja Savolainen, Clareta Treger, Eric Merkley. “Artificial Influence: Comparing the Effects of AI and Human Source Cues in Reducing Certainty in False Beliefs” [Under review; OSF pre-print]
Abstract: People often resist updating beliefs, even when confronted with strong counterevidence. While some research suggests artificial intelligence (AI) could be a solution to this problem, its persuasive capacity remains under-explored. This pre-registered study examines whether AI can reduce belief certainty among a sample of N=1,730 Americans, all of whom held at least one false or unsupported political belief. Participants engaged in a multi-round conversation with ChatGPT-4o, with the treatment manipulating who participants were told they were speaking with: ChatGPT, an expert, or a fellow survey respondent. Conversations with AI reduced belief certainty across conditions, with 29% of participants even switching to an accurate belief. ChatGPT as a source cue did not contribute to this persuasive power, but the expert cue did—relative to a survey taker. While AI provides message effects, its relatively low source credibility raises questions about its potential as a tool for persuasion in the long-term.
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2. Clareta Treger, Thomas Galipeau, Thomas Bergeron, Sarah Lachance, Natasha Goel, Mujahedul Islam, Blake Lee-Whiting, Beatrice Magistro, Peter J. Loewen. “Political Party or Policy Position? The Role of Policy Partisanship and Party Cues in Voter Decision Making” [Revise and Resubmit, OSF pre-print]
Abstract: Which matters more for voters, the political party or the policy positions of electoral candidates? We contribute to this longstanding debate by analyzing the relative importance of policy information and party cues in the multi-party Canadian context. The Canadian case allows us to disentangle the effects of policy and party on voter decision-making, which are closely intertwined in the more polarized and extensively studied U.S. case. First, we use a conjoint survey experiment to test whether implicit party cues embedded in policies shape voters’ evaluations of electoral candidates. We find that while Canadians often associate policies with specific parties – what we call policy partisanship, they do not seem to use these implicit party cues in their evaluation of candidates, focusing on policy congruence instead. Second, we test whether explicit party cues reduce the weight of policy congruence in candidate evaluations and find that they do not. Overall, our findings suggest that party cues are not as useful for voters in multi-party systems or moderately polarized systems, and that voters rely on policy information to make electoral decisions.
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3. Eric Merkley and Natasha Goel. “The Relationship Between Polarization Misperceptions and Partisan Hostility is Reciprocal” [Submitted]
Abstract: Scholars and commentators alike have observed growing polarization in the Canadian mass public. Supporters of Canada’s major parties are further apart from one another in ideological terms more so than at any point in Canadian history and, perhaps as a consequence, increasing dislike partisan outgroups, known as affective polarization. However, it is also true, at least in the United States, that people tend to perceive parties as being more ideologically and socially distinct than is actually the case. These misperceptions can further fuel affective polarization. At the same time, affective polarization can also be a cause of these misperceptions as well. Causal direction is not well established, nor has this research been extended into the Canadian context. This paper illustrates the scale and scope of perceptual (in)accuracy related to social and ideological polarization in Canada. We evaluate the association between ideological and social polarization and affective polarization and use longitudinal data and a series of experiments to shed light on causality. The powerful association we observe between polarization misperceptions and (particularly) partisan hostility is likely the product of a reciprocal relationship between them. Misperceptions may cause partisan hostility, but the reverse causal pathway – often neglected in previous work – is also important.
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4. Thomas Bergeron, Blake Lee-Whiting, Natasha Goel. “Perceiving Politics: Considering the Political Categorization of Faces” [Submitted]
Abstract: Categorizing people into groups is a fundamentally human trait. While the complexities of this practice have been explored in terms of social categorization, we know very little about how people may assign political identities to strangers. Using four survey experiments, we consider the categorization of individuals into political parties based on a single source of information: faces. Across four experiments, we asked two samples of adult Canadians (N =1,199 and N =1,468) to randomly assign faces from the Chicago Face Database to a political party. In the first study, participants were informed that the faces belonged to partisans. In the second, the faces were identified as supporters of party leaders. In the third, the faces were described as belonging to political candidates. The outcome of interest is the political party the face was attributed to, manipulating factors such as race, age, gender, and emotions, using the shown faces. We found that while participants didn't generally assume partisanship based on gender or age, race and emotions, particularly negative emotions, certainly factor in. In a fourth experiment, we show that this categorization process is not a simple reflection of partisan animosity, but a distinct cognitive mechanism. Our results shed light on some of the prototypes people may rely on to perceive the politics of others, and raise concerns of how these practices may exacerbate partisan animosity.
5. Helen Hayes and Natasha Goel. “Media Influence on Trust in Online Remote Voting.” In Trust and Trustworthiness: Evaluations of Online Voting. McGill-Queen’s University Press, ’24 [Under contract]
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6. Natasha Goel. “Beyond Partisanship: Do Nativist Threats Bias the Evaluation of Immigration Information?”
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7. Natasha Goel. “Motivating Demand for Credible Information”